قیمت آلومینیوم
15 سال تجزیه و تحلیل قیمت و پویایی تولید- تقاضا، تولید ناخالص داخلی پس از بالا ماندن، در محدوده 1850 دلار در هر تن متریک تا 1950 دلار در هر تن، قیمت آلومینیوم در نیمه دوم سال 2019 کاهش یافت و در ابتدای اکتبر 2019 به نزدیک 1700 دلار رسید.
کاهش قیمت ها منجر به کاهش تقاضا در چین ، انتظارات از عرضه مازاد و افزایش صادرات آلومینیوم از چین به دلیل کاهش تقاضای داخلی. علاوه بر این، صادرات بیشتر محصولات آلومینیومی نیمه ساخته شده از چین فشار بیشتری بر قیمت آلومینیوم اولیه وارد کرده است.
با این حال، آلومینیوم در 15 سال گذشته نیز سهم انعطاف ناپذیری داشته است، با اوج گیری کالا و بحران مالی.
حرکت قیمت آلومینیوم در 15 سال گذشته
قیمت آلومینیوم در 15 سال گذشته نوسانات زیادی را تجربه کرده است ، در این دوره قیمت از 1604 دلار به ازای هر متریک تن تا 2 هزار و 638 دلار به ازای هر تن متغیر بوده است.
در دوره رونق کالاها ، قیمت به طور مداوم از 1716 دلار در سال 2004 به 2،638 دلار در سال 2007 افزایش می یابد ، قبل از اینکه با کاهش تقاضا و رشد جهانی رشد کند ، به 2573 دلار در سال 2008 کاهش یابد.
با این وجود، در پی رکود جهانی، با کاهش تقاضا در پی رکود صنعتی، قیمت آلومینیوم سقوط کرد. به دلیل افزایش مصرف از چین، قیمت ها از سال 2010 افزایش یافت.
با این وجود، عرضه بیش از حد جهانی به دلیل ادامه تولید کشور های غربی به امید افزایش واردات چینی، منجر به افت قیمت ها شد، زیرا بیشتر تقاضای چین توسط خود تولید داخلی تأمین شد که قیمت آن به بورس فیوچرز شانگهای مرتبط است.
با افزایش رشد جهانی و سرانجام بازیکنان آلومینیوم به دلیل کاهش حاشیه (با افزایش قیمت آلومینا) ظرفیت خود را کاهش دادند ، کسری آلومینیوم منجر به افزایش قیمت ها در 3 سال گذشته شد. با نگرانی از رشد اقتصادی جهانی و کاهش رشد صنعتی در چین ، قیمت آلومینیوم در سال 2019 کاهش یافت.
تولید و توزیع جغرافیایی
چین بزرگترین تولید کننده آلومینیوم در جهان بوده و طی 15 سال گذشته موقعیت رهبری خود را حفظ کرده است. چین توانسته است سهم خود را از تولید آلومینیوم جهان از حدود 22 درصد در سال 2004 به نزدیک 57 درصد در سال 2018 افزایش دهد.
طی سالهای گذشته، چین مبالغ هنگفتی را در گسترش ظرفیت ذوب خود سرمایه گذاری کرد تا بتواند خودکفا شود و به چند تولید کننده بزرگ وابسته نباشد.
این امر به کشور کمک کرده است تا سهم تولید آمریکای شمالی و اروپا (شامل سایر نقاط جهان) را بخورد. تولید آلومینیوم طی 15 سال گذشته به طور پیوسته افزایش یافته است، به جز کاهش در سال 2009 که شرکت ها در مقابل کاهش تقاضا ، تولید کمتری داشتند.
با گسترش سریع ظرفیت چین ، تولید جهانی 52٪ از 42.4 میلیون تن در سال 2010 به 64.3 میلیون تن در سال 2018 افزایش یافت
مصرف و خرابی بازار
بخش های حمل و نقل و ساخت و ساز بیش از نیمی (52٪) کل مصرف آلومینیوم را تشکیل می دهند، در حالی که 48٪ شامل فویل و بسته بندی، مهندسی برق، ماشین آلات، کالاهای مصرفی و غیره است.
مشابه تولید، تقاضای آلومینیوم نیز طی 15 سال گذشته به طور مداوم افزایش یافته است، به غیر از افت در سال 2009، زمانی که رشد اقتصادی کمتر منجر به کاهش تقاضای صنعتی برای آلومینیوم شد.
با این حال، با رشد سریع زیرساخت ها در اقتصادهای در حال ظهور مانند چین و هند ، تقاضای آلومینیوم 57 درصد از 42 میلیون تن در سال 2010 به نزدیک 66 میلیون تن در سال 2018 افزایش یافت.
برای دوره بین 2004 و 2008 (قبل از بحران) ، تقاضا و تولید هر دو 34٪ افزایش یافته است، در حالی که، در دوره 2010-2018 (پس از بحران) ، تقاضا 57٪ ، بالاتر از 52٪ افزایش تولید افزایش یافته است
مازاد / (کسری) و حرکت قیمت
آلومینیوم از 15 سال گذشته 8 سال مازاد بوده است ، از سال 2007 تا 2012 برای 6 سال متوالی مازاد بوده است
شرکتهای آلومینیوم غربی حتی پس از بحران مالی ظرفیت ذوب آلومینیوم خود را به میزان زیادی کاهش ندادند ، به این امید که چین، که فاقد مقدار کافی بوکسیت با کیفیت بالا و انرژی ارزان قیمت است ، به واردات آلومینیوم اولیه ادامه دهد ، بنابراین فشار وارد می کند قیمت ها در عوض، چین ظرفیت ذوب خود را گسترش داد ، به طوری که واردات چین به دلیل درصد مصرف آلومینیوم از 25٪ در 2000 به کمتر از 2٪ در 2007 کاهش یافت و از آن زمان به بعد زیر 2٪ باقی مانده است.
این منجر به عرضه بیش از حد در بازار جهانی شد ، در حالی که چین از آلومینیوم اصلی خود برای صنایع پایین دستی خود استفاده کرد. با این حال ، با افزایش قیمت آلومینا و کاهش حاشیه برای کارخانه های ذوب آلومینیوم ، بسیاری از بازیکنان اصلی اخیراً ظرفیت خود را کاهش داده اند ، که منجر به کسری آلومینیوم از 2016 تا 2018 شده و منجر به افزایش قیمت آلومینیوم در این دوره شده است.
روند تولید ناخالص داخلی – قیمت
قیمت آلومینیوم تا حدود زیادی رابطه مستقیمی با نرخ رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی جهان داشته است. از آنجا که آلومینیوم ابزار پرچین نیست یا برای سرمایه گذاری استفاده نمی شود ، بلکه فقط دارای کاربرد های صنعتی است ، قیمت آن مطابق پویایی عرضه و تقاضا حرکت می کند ، تقاضا با رشد صنعتی بالا که معمولاً در یک مرحله رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی بالا است ، افزایش می یابد.
قیمت در دوره رونق قبل از سال 2008 افزایش یافت.
با این وجود ، با کاهش رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی در سال 2009 به دنبال بحران مالی جهانی ، قیمت آلومینیوم به دلیل کند شدن تقاضا سقوط کرد ، در حالی که به دلیل سالها گسترش ظرفیت ، عرضه همچنان بالا بود. با بهبود در اقتصاد جهانی در سال 2010 ، قیمت ها افزایش یافت و از آن زمان عمدتا همزمان با روند نرخ رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی حرکت کرد.
آنچه در پیش نهفته است
با کاهش رشد صنعتی در چین و نگرانی ها درباره کاهش اقتصاد جهانی پس از جنگ تجاری ایالات متحده و چین ، قیمت آلومینیوم در سال 2019 کاهش یافته است.
انتظار می رود که آلومینیوم در سال 2020 دوباره مازاد برود ، با کاهش تقاضا و افزایش صادرات کالاهای داخلی داخلی در چین ، که منجر به افت قیمت آلومینیوم به 3175 اکتبر 2019 به 1755 دلار در هر تن شده است.
انتظار می رود نگرانی در مورد رشد جهانی و کاهش شرایط تقاضا ، قیمت آلومینیوم را در طی سالهای 2019 و 2020 فرومایه نگه دارد ، در صورت آتش بس آمریکا و چین بهبود قیمت ها احتمالاً رخ می دهد و رشد اقتصادی جهانی را افزایش می دهد.
چه چیزی در پیش نهفته است
با کاهش رشد صنعتی در چین و نگرانی ها درباره کاهش اقتصاد جهانی پس از جنگ تجاری ایالات متحده و چین ، قیمت آلومینیوم در سال 2019 کاهش یافته است.
انتظار می رود رودخانه ای که آلومینیوم در سال 2020 دوباره مازاد برود ، با کاهش تقاضا و افزایش صادرات کالاهای داخلی در چین ، که باعث می شود قیمت آلومینیوم به 3175 اکتبر 2019 به 1755 دلار برسد در هر تنش است.
انتظار می رود رود نگرانی در مورد رشد جهانی و کاهش شرایط تقاضا ، قیمت آلومینیوم را در سالهای 2019 و 2020 فرومایه نگه دارد ، در صورت آتش بس ایالات متحده و چین بهبود قیمت ها احتمالاً رخ نمی دهد و رشد اقتصادی جهانی باعث افزایش می شود.
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