قیمت آلومینیوم تحت تأثیر ضعف اقتصاد جهانی قرار می گیرد
در تقاضای ضعیف و عرضه مازاد در بازار برای تأثیر بر قیمت ها کاهش سرعت در صنعت خودرو ، بزرگترین مصرف کننده ،همه چیز با اقتصاد جهانی خوب نیست.
بورس فلزات لندن (LME)، جمعه هفته گذشته قیمت قطره آلومینیوم 1775 دلار / تن بود که حدود 5 درصد کمتر از یک سال قبل بود. اختلاف تجاری ایالات متحده و چین و کاهش تولید در سراسر غرب باعث کاهش تقاضا برای فلزات اساسی ، به ویژه آلومینیوم شده است.
صندوق بین المللی پول ، در گزارش چشم انداز اقتصاد جهانی ژانویه ، رشد اقتصادی جهانی در سال 2020 و 2021 را با 0.1٪ و 0.2٪ از تخمین های ماه اکتبر اصلاح کرد ، به ترتیب به 3.3 و 3.4 درصد.
در سال 2019 ، اقتصاد جهانی احتمالاً 2.9 درصد رشد کرده است. با این حال ، بسته به پیشرفت در جنگ تجاری ایالات متحده و چین ، رشد جهانی حتی ممکن است پایین بیاید. رشد کندتر اقتصادی به معنای فعالیت صنعتی کمتر و در نتیجه تقاضای کمتری برای فلزات اساسی است.
تقاضای هوشیارانه
از آنجا که صنعت اتومبیل سازی بزرگترین مصرف کننده آلومینیوم است ، کاهش سرعت آن در سراسر جهان میراگر این فلز بوده است. با کاهش هزینه های مصرف کننده، عدم قطعیت برای این بخش باقی مانده است. آژانس رتبه بندی مودی در سال 2020 چشم انداز منفی برای صنعت جهانی خودرو در نظر گرفته است ، زیرا پیش بینی می کند فروش خودروهای سبک 0.9 درصد به دنبال کاهش 3.8 درصدی پیش بینی شده در سال 2019 کاهش یابد
تقاضا در چین، بزرگترین مصرف کننده بزرگ (کمی بیش از 50 درصد مصرف جهانی) و همچنین تولید کننده برتر (حدود 56 درصد از تولید جهانی) این فلز ، می تواند تأثیر قابل توجهی در قیمت آلومینیوم در سال جاری داشته باشد ، اگر بهبود یابد
بسیاری از شرکت های چینی تلاش می کنند تا معاملات ساخت جاده ها، بنادر و سایر موارد زیربنایی را در سایر کشورها انجام دهند. این ممکن است تقاضا برای ادامه فلز را افزایش دهد. بعلاوه ، همانطور که بازارهای نوظهور از جمله هند، تایلند و اندونزی برای صنعتی سازی بیشتر هدف دارند، می تواند از طرف تقاضا به آلومینیوم کمک کند.
تأمین کافی
تولید جهانی آلومینیوم اولیه در سال 2019 با وجود لغو تحریم های ایالات متحده برای این شرکت، با وجود ورود آلومینیوم بزرگ روسی Rusal به بازار، برای اولین بار در یک دهه گذشته منقبض شد. طبق اطلاعات موسسه بین المللی آلومینیوم (IAI)، تولید با یک درصد کاهش به 63.7 میلیون تن رسید. آخرین باری که تولید فلز در سال 2009 منقبض شد ، 5.7 درصد افت داشت. دلیل عمده سقوط 2019 چین بود که تولید خود را با کاهش 2 درصدی به 35.8 میلیون تن رساند. در اروپای غربی و آمریکای لاتین نیز در سال 2019 افت تولید وجود دارد. گفته می شود ، بازار همچنان دارای عرضه مازاد است.
تولید آلومینیوم برای سه سال بیش از تقاضا 3/4 میلیون تن بوده است. در سال 2019 ، در حالی که تولید 63.69 میلیون تن بود ، تقاضا 60 میلیون تن بود. بنابراین ، چشم انداز از نقطه عرضه برای سرمایه گذاران آلومینیوم چندان دلگرم کننده نیست.
بعلاوه ، به نظر می رسد موضوعاتی که کارخانه های ذوب چینی با آن روبرو هستند فقط موقتی است. با پیشرفت ، می توان انتظار داشت که عرضه این واحدها احیا شود که این تنها به تولید مازاد موجود اضافه خواهد شد. همچنین ، خروجی از کشورها در شورای همکاری خلیج فارس (GCC) به طور پیوسته در حال افزایش است. (در حال حاضر ، میزان تولید GCC 9 درصد از تولید جهانی است).
چشم انداز قیمت
اگر پیش برویم ، در سال 2020 ، با توجه به چشم انداز اقتصادی ضعیف چین ، همچنین ایالات متحده و اروپا ، یک افزایش شدید قیمت تردید دارد.
یکی از عواملی که به راحتی به سرمایه گذاران آلومینیوم کمک می کند ، افزایش ضمانت نامه های لغو شده در مورد آلومینیوم در LME است. وقتی حکم لغو می شود ، به این معنی است که دارنده حکم ، به طور کلی معامله گران بزرگ ، آماده نیست سهام خود را در دسترس بازار قرار دهد.
ضمانت نامه های لغو شده موجودی آلومینیوم در هفته آخر دسامبر 2019 شروع به تیراندازی کرد. از 162،700 تن در پایان ماه نوامبر ، در 22 ژانویه به 623،225 تن بالون رسید (بالاترین میزان از سال 2016) و از 24 ژانویه 528،075 تن بود. اکنون 48 درصد از کل موجودی انبارهای LME تشکیل شده است.
بالاترین میزان در سال 2014 56 درصد بوده است. اوج ضمانت نامه های لغو شده در حال حاضر عرضه موجود در بازار را فشرده می کند – یک علامت مثبت برای قیمت در کوتاه مدت. با این حال ، توجه داشته باشید که اگر قیمت ها به بالاتر از 2000 دلار در هر تن برسد ، ممکن است یک دوره جدید عرضه از محل کارخانه های ذوب بسته به بازار وارد شود و یک بررسی از قیمت داشته باشد.
چشم انداز بازار هند
در هند ، تقریباً نیمی از تقاضا برای آلومینیوم از بخش برق است ، برخلاف سایر کشورها که بخش خودرو است که تقاضا را هدایت می کند. در هند ، بخش خودرو حدود 15 درصد از آلومینیوم تولید شده در این کشور را مصرف می کند. در بازار داخلی نیز قیمت بالایی از آلومینیوم مشاهده نشده است.
واردات قراضه آلومینیوم به مقدار عمده به هند وارد می شود. بنابراین ، اگر افراط و تفریط جهانی در سال جاری راهی برای دستیابی به هند و بدون هیچ مانع سفارشی پیدا کند ، قیمت ها ممکن است همزمان با بازار جهانی حرکت کنند.
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