تاثیر تغییر نرخ دلار بر قیمت فلزات گرانبها
چندین سال پیش ، تحلیلگران و نشریات اصلی یک بار حدس زدند که یوان در نهایت جایگزین دلار آمریکا به عنوان ارز ذخیره جهان خواهد شد. اما با توجه به قیمت بیشتر کالاها با دلار آمریکا ، به ویژه نفت ، دلار آمریکا به عنوان ارز ذخیره جهان باقی مانده است. دلار آمریکا همچنین ارز اصلی در بازار فلزات گرانبها است.
قیمت شمش طلا در ایالات متحده و چین ، همانطور که در نمودار بالا مشاهده می شود ، از نزدیک با هم حرکت می کنند. در همین حال ، هر دو تمایل دارند که معکوس در برابر دلار حرکت کنند. به عبارت دیگر ، هرچه دلار تقویت شود ، قیمت طلا در هر دو کشور ضعیف می شود.
تاثیر تغییر نرخ دلار بر قیمت فلزات گرانبها ، نوسانات یوان در برابر دلار بیشتر است و تأثیر چندانی بر قیمت طلا ندارد.
در اینجا نگاه معمولی تری به رابطه بین ارزش های ایالات متحده با طلا با قیمت هر اونس نشان داده شده است که رابطه معکوس قیمت را به وضوح نشان می دهد. MetalMiner اخیراً با رئیس و مدیر عامل شرکت نقره ای آمریکا دارن بلاسوتی در رابطه با روند اصلی قیمت طلا و نقره ارتباط برقرار کرد.
بلاسوتی توضیح داد که دور شدن از نفت از صعود طلا پشتیبانی می کند. پس از این اتفاق ، منطق نگه داشتن دلار آمریکا بسیار ضعیف می شود ، در حالی که تنوع ارز ، از جمله خرید فلزات گرانبها ، همچنان منطقی خواهد بود.
در حالی که فلزات صنعتی نوسانات قیمت بیشتری را طی دوره های خاص نشان داده اند ، طبق گفته های بلاستی ، قیمت طلا نسبتاً پایدارتر مانده است ، بنابراین باعث جذابیت بیشتر آن برای شرکت های معدنی می شود
قیمت طلا طی سال گذشته یا حدوداً از پشتیبانی قیمتی برخوردار بوده است ، اما همچنان پایین تر از گذشته اخیر است. هنوز هم ، قیمت ها در یک باند پهلو نسبتاً پایدار معامله می شوند و کم و بیش از سال 2013 این کار را انجام داده اند.
ریشه های تاریخی به رنگ نقره ای قبل از شروع کار در استخراج طلا ، همانطور که اکثر شرکتهای بزرگ نقره دیگر تاکنون این کار را انجام داده اند ، شرکت آمریکای نقره یک سبد مخلوط بازار از جمله نقره ، روی و سرب استخراج کرده است.
با قیمت های بسیار پایین نقره در گذشته اخیر ، توجیه استخراج فلز از منظر هزینه دشوار است. در نتیجه افت قیمت نقره به دنبال دستیابی به دو پروژه مهم نقره ، شرکت آمریکای نقره از استخراج عمدتا نقره به سمت سرب و روی منتقل شد.
با گذشت زمان ، استراتژی استخراج به سمت درجه های بالاتر سرب و روی و کیفیت نقره پایین تر تغییر جهت داد. منطقی تر بود که از قیمت بالاتر روی و سرب بهره ببریم ، در حالی که قیمت نقره رکود طولانی مدت را تجربه کرد.
در آینده قابل پیش بینی ، در حالی که قیمت نقره همچنان پایین است ، شرکت همچنان بر استخراج نقره درجه پایین خود تمرکز می کند و گریدهای بالاتر را در زمین باقی می گذارد ، زیرا این شرکت در قیمت های طولانی مدت نقره همچنان صعودی است.
بلاشوتی گفت: “وقتی نقره برگشت ، ما می توانیم اونس را به طرز چشمگیری در قسمت نقره افزایش دهیم.”
خرید و راه اندازی شرکت معدن Relief Canyon Mine ، واقع در پرشینگ کانتی ، نوادا ، برای استخراج طلا ، این شرکت را از یک شرکت استخراج فلزات اساسی به یک شرکت استخراج فلزات گرانبها تبدیل خواهد کرد.
بلاشوتی گفت: “بخشی از انگیزه بازگشت به فلزات گرانبها تهیه کالایی بود که فکر می کردیم نوسانات کمتری دارد.” “طلا نشان داده است که در دوره گذشته نوسانات کمتری دارد ، بسیار بیشتر از فلزات پایه. فلزات اساسی در محدوده ای معامله می شوند و طلا در محدوده ای معامله می شوند ، اما محدوده [برای طلا] شدید نبوده است. »
تاکنون ، حتی با وجود جنگ تجاری ، قیمت نقره همچنان پایین است.
همانطور که در نمودار بالا نشان داده شده است ، نسبت قیمت طلا به نقره همچنان به سمت طلا افزایش می یابد.
اما همانطور که توسط بلاوستی اشاره شده است ، شرکتهای نقره باقی مانده پس از چرخش قیمت فلز ، سود زیادی را کسب می کنند. وی اشاره کرد آخرین باری که قیمت ها در حدود این نسبت (90.3: 1) ایستاده بودند ، نقره برگشت.
همانطور که در نمودار بالا نشان داده شده است ، نسبت قیمت طلا به نقره همچنان به سمت افزایش فشار می دهد.
اما همان طور که توسط بلاوستی ذکر شده است ، شرکت های نقره باقی مانده اند پس از چرخش قیمت فلز ، سود بیشتری را کسب می کنند. وی اشاره کرد آخرین باری که قیمت ها در حدود این نسبت (90.3: 1) ایستاده بودند ، نقره برگشتند.
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